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WHAT THE MASSACHUSETTS SENATE ELECTION MEANS TO INVESTORS
January 22, 2010

While the results of the January 19th Massachusetts special election continue to send shockwaves through political America, what the election of Scott Brown as the other Senator from the Bay State means to investors is just now starting to become clear.

Obviously, the most publicized aspect of this vote is that the US Senate, prior to the election contained 58 Democrats and 2 Independents who normally voted with them, and 40 Republicans. When Senator Brown is seated, the Republicans will have 41 and the Democrats 57 with the 2 Independents remaining. In other words, the filibuster proof or Super Majority of 60 is gone. Presuming the Republicans all vote together, as they have on the Health Care bill, currently working its way through Congress, many matters will not be able to move forward. On one hand, that alone may doom any health care bill or, on the other hand, force Democrats to rethink strategy and try to get a bill through a number of other political avenues, neither of which seems to agree with current American sentiment on the issue.

In short, without that one vote in the Senate, the Massachusetts special election will have created the first step to true Gridlock in Washington. We will read in the coming weeks and months and especially after the November mid-term elections, that all will be bad because with gridlock, nothing can happen in Washington. Well, with a Super Majority in Congress, not much got done, so without it, my prediction is that not much will get done. While that may not be good news for all Americans (supposedly we elect these folks to do things), it usually portends well for investors. Most likely, no major piece of legislation can be moved forward; but rather only incremental changes will get through.

See, in the grand scheme of things, the Massachusetts election proved once again, that America is not conservative or liberal. We are a right, center right country, which while we voted for change in 2008, we most likely saw more change and different change than we expected, especially with what was reportedly contained in any version of the health care bill. As this Presidents agenda moved forward, it soon became evident that his agenda was not our agenda. And, it really didnt take long for the countrys angst to begin. When Congress didnt listen Americans screamed louder at Town Hall meetings, e-mail notifications to representatives and phone calls to radio and television shows. And, when that didnt quite work, citizens of reliably blue New Jersey voted out their Democratic governor for a Republican who simply ran against him and not really for anything in particular. On the same night, Virginia, also having turned blue in 2008, catapulted Republican Bob McDonnell into the Governors mansion with a near landslide.

As we approached Christmas and the New Year, Congress was getting very nervous and sped up the process to vote the health care bill forward. Republicans could only kick and scream. After a sneaky Christmas Eve vote, both houses had a version of the bill passed and only the blending of those bills stood between the American people and a health care bill which seemingly less and less people every day wanted.

Then, in the middle of compromising, back room deals and health care issues, Massachusetts voted. They voted with their anger, impatience and fortitude. They voted for a candidate who stated in no uncertain terms that he would be the 41st Republican vote and perhaps derail health care. Thus, after months of the Administration and Congress telling us that we need health care and we need it now and we need their version, Massachusetts spoke for all Americans and said no. They said no to the behemoth spending, potential increased taxes and a health care bill that could potentially bankrupt this nation.

Whether you voted Republican or Democrat is not at issue right now. What is next, I believe is a re-setting of the political agenda. Without a rubber stamp approval, Democrats will need to work with Republicans and we can all agree that this is a good thing. I think all can also agree that some sort of health care reform is needed. Perhaps this election will give pause and allow the politicians to come up with a better bill; one which will be more fiscally responsible.

So, what is in store for investors? As I indicated, all of the Presidents agenda is at least on hold. We will get some clue next week at the State of the Union address as to how he intends to proceed. If he decides to ramp down his expectations and encourage Congress to work together (certainly not a sure thing), perhaps some sort of health care bill will emerge. If he decides that Congress should pursue health care at any cost, divisiveness in Washington may reach an all-time high.

We have some serious economic headwinds as we move through 2010. The stock markets collective average fall of 5% after the special election have confirmed that potential bank fees, a Federal Reserve shake up and the certainty of a recovery are headline issues. This recovery, if we can call it that, will start and stop, presuming it continues. The unemployment rate is not about to fall yet. The Fed will begin postulating as to where interest rates need to be. Undoubtedly, they will not get it exactly correct. Housing will continue to be a challenge and if rates do go up, any recovery there will be muted.

Keep the faith in America. While the political landscape has changed, at least temporarily, the country is still on edge and as we move through 2010, decisions which are made unilaterally in Washington will invariably lead to further changes in Congress in November.


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